The war on Ukraine raised the risk of a humanitarian crisis in Lebanon due to supply problems related to grain. The economy minister announced that Lebanon has one month’s wheat reserves at most. The country imports around 65% of its wheat from Ukraine and 12% from Russia. This situation comes with the destruction of Lebanon’s main wheat silos in the 2020 Beirut port explosion and severe economic crises.

LIMS explained that Lebanon imports most of its wheat from Mariupol on the Sea of Azov and Odessa on the Black Sea. The war disrupted the shipment of grain from those regions leading to delays in delivery. So far, the delays are logistical due to the inability of ships to leave the harbor. However, if the war lasts several months, farmers in Ukraine will not be able to harvest, which would create significant disruption. Alternative sources of wheat such as India, Latin America, and North America will cost more given the increase in the international price of the commodity, the higher transportation and insurance costs, and the longer route of the shipment. Likewise, Lebanon imports fuel from the region of the black sea. Global fuel prices will be sensed at the tank and in electricity prices. Electricity generators will resort to longer rationing hours to maintain the monthly bill affordable for the median household.

LIMS added that the fate of bread hangs in the hand of the government. Currently, the Ministry of Economy sets the price of bread way below the actual cost and then subsides wheat to make it up for bakeries. The central bank foots the bill draining Lebanon’s foreign exchange reserves. LIMS recommended allowing higher prices of bread and progressively removing subsidies because the central bank cannot finance this program anymore. Alternatively, the country can suffer from bread outages if the ministry maintains the price below cost and cannot finance the bakeries’ losses.

• The Lebanese Fear Wheat Shortage Amid Ukraine Crisis, March 2, 2022: Al-Monitor, Article EN
• Waiting Lines On The Horizon, Bread Price Controls Should Be Lifted To Avoid Shortages, March 4, 2022: Sawt Beirut International, Radio Interview AR 
• Could Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine Trigger A Global Food Crisis? March 5, 2022: Al Jazeera English, TV Interview EN
• War In Ukraine: Its Impact On Food-Importing Countries, March 6, 2022: TRT Arabic, TV Interview AR
• Flour Crisis: Central Bank’s Losses Only Increase, March 19, 2022: Alhurra,  TV Interview AR 
• 85% Of Lebanon’s Wheat Is From Ukraine; The Rest Is From Russia: Will Subsidies Continue, As International Prices Increase? March 25, 2022: Annahar, Article AR